
The increase in Best Picture nominations from 5 to 10 has gotten a lot of coverage and critique. I'm withholding judgment until I see how it plays out, mostly because of the big change that gets overlooked- not only has the number of nominees increased, but the rules for how they will be chosen have changed as well. In the old system, you simply voted for which film you thought should win, and the movie that got the most votes won Best Picture. However, they (rightly, in my opinion) realized this wouldn't work for 10 nominations, because a movie could win with as little as 11% of the vote. Now, let's face it, it's not going to be that close (anyone out there think The Blind Side or District 9 are going to get almost as many votes as The Hurt Locker or Avatar?). But the rules still had to be changed. So here's what happens, courtesy of the BBC:
"Instead of choosing a single winner, Academy members have been asked to rank the 10 titles on their ballot form from 1 to 10.
Their ballots will then be sorted into 10 piles, based on which films they have placed in pole position.
If no movie wins more than 50% of the vote - a statistical unlikelihood - the film with the least number of first-choice votes will be knocked out of contention.
Its ballots will then be redistributed among the remaining candidates, based on which movies their owners have ranked in second place.
If there is still no movie with a 51% majority, the procedure will be repeated with the movie ranked ninth. Then eighth. Then seventh.
Eventually one movie will have an unassailable lead - even if it takes second, third or even fourth choices to achieve it."
Yup, that's how they're deciding the Best Picture this year. Meaning a movie could theoretically win without having the largest number of first place votes. So the real question is, whose favor does it work in? Is a voter who put one of the movies that's eliminated first, say The Blind Side, more likely to have voted for Avatar or The Hurt Locker in second place? Is a District 9 supporter a sci-fi person in general, thus making them more likely to have Avatar as number 2? Is this how Inglourious Basterds is going to sneak through and be the surprise of the night?
Personally, I think it helps Avatar the most, because it's the type of movie that people loved but might not want to put first, although it seems I'm in the minority on that opinion. I guess we'll see. 6 days to Oscar Day!!!
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